Speed Blots — Friday 23 October 2026
Fast horses that are well-in at the weights — the handicap “blots” — backed each-way at 6/1 to 18/1. A fun flutter, tracked honestly. not a promised profit
The honest record
Settled at Starting Price, every runner, win or lose. One in three hits the frame. Each-way sits around break-even (the win half is the long shot); the value is in the places, where the return has been clearly positive. Backtested over ~2 months of speed data — no out-of-sample test yet, so treat it as a promising experiment we’re proving in the open, not a finished edge. Our tracked place angle →
Recent Speed Blots
| Date | Horse | Course | Price | SPD/OFR | Finish | E/W result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | Thursday Girl | 2:20 Newmarket | 11/1 | 78/77 | 1st | WON +11.25pts |
| 22 Oct | Paradise Walk | 8:30 Southwell (AW) | 15/2 | 79/77 | 1st | WON +7.50pts |
| 22 Oct | Orangesandlemons | 6:30 Southwell (AW) | 9/1 | 76/71 | 6th | Unplaced -2.00pts |
| 22 Oct | Righthere Rightnow | 8:00 Southwell (AW) | 8/1 | 85/79 | 8th | Unplaced -2.00pts |
| 22 Oct | Born A Rebel | 5:15 Newmarket | 17/2 | 71/65 | 8th | Unplaced -2.00pts |
| 22 Oct | Golden Brown | 4:05 Newmarket | 16/1 | 83/77 | 9th | Unplaced -2.00pts |
| 22 Oct | Mythical Guest | 2:55 Newmarket | 13/2 | 81/75 | 7th | Unplaced -2.00pts |
| 22 Oct | Arantes Nascimento | 3:30 Newmarket | 7/1 | 80/73 | 7th | Unplaced -2.00pts |
| 22 Oct | Bint Al Daar | 5:30 Southwell (AW) | 11/1 | 85/67 | 7th | Unplaced -2.00pts |
| 21 Oct | Babzini | 6:30 Kempton (AW) | 9/1 | 72/68 | 11th | Unplaced -2.00pts |
Each-way profit shown per 1pt each-way (2pt total stake). A win lands both halves.
Building a Lucky 15? Today's Lucky 15 and each-way picks from the same model are at Today Racing Tips.
Speed Blots are our fun each-way angle: fast horses the handicapper hasn’t caught up with. We take each horse’s speed figure (SPD) and compare it to its official rating (OFR) — the weight it carries. When a horse is among the quickest in the race yet rated (and weighted) well below that speed, it’s “well-in” — a blot on the handicap. At prices of 6/1 to 18/1, those horses run into the frame far more often than their odds suggest, and now and again one wins at a big price. We publish one per race, back them each-way, and settle every single one at Starting Price — no hiding the losers. It’s a flutter, not a guarantee, and we show you exactly how it’s doing.
Frequently asked questions
What is a Speed Blot?
A “blot” is a horse that’s well-in at the weights — one the handicapper hasn’t caught up with. We find the fastest horses on the clock (SPD) that are carrying less weight than their speed deserves (a big gap of SPD over their official rating), at prices of 6/1 to 18/1. A fast horse getting in light is the classic each-way “shout”.
Are these a guaranteed profit?
No — and we won’t pretend otherwise. These are a fun each-way flutter rather than our flagship pick (that’s the Nap). Backtested (2 months of speed data, no out-of-sample test yet) they’ve hit the frame about a third of the time; each-way they’ve been roughly break-even at SP, with the upside that when one wins it lands at a big price. We track every one honestly, win or lose.
Where is the actual edge — each-way or place?
In the place. The win half of an each-way bet on a big-priced horse is a long shot, so it drags the return; the value is these horses running into the frame far more often than their odds imply. Historically the place-only return has been clearly positive while each-way sits around level. So: back them each-way for the thrill of the big win, or back them to place to chase the actual edge. Either way, take an early price with Best Odds Guaranteed.
How do you pick them?
One per race, in 8+ runner handicaps: the horse with the biggest gap of speed figure over official rating (best speed-for-weight), among the three fastest in the race, that is neither top- nor bottom-weight, priced 6/1–18/1. It’s a data screen — real form-reading on top is where the real skill lives.
How should I stake them?
Level stakes, each-way, at a price you’re happy with. Never chase, never stake more than you can afford to lose. These are high-variance longshots — most lose, some place, a few win big. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
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