Place Value Tips — Friday 23 October 2026
The horse the handicapper rates best in the race, drifting to a bigger price — backed to place. The each-way angle that held up best in our backtesting.
How Place Value has done
Settled at Starting Price with standard each-way place terms (1/4 in handicaps), win or lose. The edge is small and real — a few percent across the whole list, not a jackpot. It backtested positive in and out of sample; we’re now tracking it live to confirm it holds. The bigger wins come when one of these longshots actually wins — but the places are what pay the bills.
Recent Place Value results
| Date | Horse | Course | Price | OFR | Finish | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | Johnny Moonshine | 1:17 Carlisle | 66/1 | 105 | 4th | Unplaced |
| 22 Oct | Katie Can't Count | 2:46 Clonmel | 14/1 | 102 | 3rd | Placed +1.70 |
| 22 Oct | Pahlavi ★ | 2:10 Clonmel | 40/1 | 98 | 14th | Unplaced |
| 22 Oct | The Grey Man | 4:20 Ffos Las | 14/1 | 105 | 4th | Unplaced |
| 22 Oct | For Ever Hopefull | 7:30 Southwell (AW) | 20/1 | 60 | 4th | Unplaced |
| 22 Oct | Final Straw ★ | 3:02 Carlisle | 20/1 | 100 | 10th | Unplaced |
| 22 Oct | Artanis | 3:30 Newmarket | 25/1 | 75 | 9th | Unplaced |
| 22 Oct | O'Driscoll | 5:00 Southwell (AW) | 33/1 | 65 | 12th | Unplaced |
Place Value is the each-way angle that held up best in our backtesting. For years the received wisdom is that the each-way market is a mug’s game — and for untargeted each-way bets it is. But there’s a specific, repeatable inefficiency: when the official handicapper rates a horse the best in its race, yet the market lets it drift out to 6/1, 10/1 or bigger, that horse’s place chance has tended to be underpriced in our data. Class runs into the frame. We back those horses to place, publish every selection, and settle the entire list at Starting Price so you can judge it honestly. It backtested positive in and out of sample, but past results don’t guarantee future profit.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Place Value angle?
Each day we back the horse the official handicapper rates highest in a race (the top OFR) when the market has let it drift to 6/1 or bigger — to place, not to win. A well-handicapped horse at a big price runs into the frame far more often than its win-odds suggest. It’s an each-way / place bet, so you’re paid when it finishes in the places.
Why place and not win?
Because that’s where the value is. On the win market these horses are fairly priced or worse. But the place market underrates class at long odds — the same horse that’s a 10/1 no-hoper to win is often an over-priced 26% chance to place. Backtested over ~1,700 place bets it returned a small but genuine profit, positive in and out of sample.
What’s the difference between the two lists?
The main list is every qualifier (top OFR, 6/1+, 8+ runner handicap). “Select” is the subset where our own ratings ALSO rate the horse in the top four — that agreement between the handicapper, the market drift and our model has been the strongest slice (a higher place-ROI in testing).
Is this a guaranteed profit?
No. The backtested edge is small (a few percent) and live returns are usually thinner than a backtest. We publish every pick and settle the whole list at Starting Place-price, honestly, so you can see exactly how it does. Treat it as a tracked value experiment, not a licence to print money.
How should I stake it?
These are each-way / place bets at level stakes — one point to place on each qualifier. The edge only holds across the whole list over time, so cherry-picking one “good thing” misses the point. Never stake more than you can afford to lose. 18+, gamble responsibly.
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